Admission requirements
- Only students of the MSc Crisis and Security Management, enrolled in the specialisation ‘Intelligence and National Security’, can take this course.
Description
During this course, you will learn to critically examine the role and challenges of intelligence in decision-making. We will be looking at the relationship between intelligence producers and consumers (heads of state, heads of government, ministers, senior policy officers), with special attention to interactions between both groups when facing national or international security crises. We will explore the intelligence-policy interface from a conceptual and theoretical perspective and apply this knowledge to various contemporary crises. While well-studied cases will be discussed, we will also investigate more recent cases such as the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, the rapid fall of Kabul in August 2021, or Russia’s 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine, where states anticipated and prepared for the risks very differently. You will learn more about the diversity of intelligence-policy contexts in Europe and beyond. Discussions will focus on how policymakers in various countries receive and use the intelligence collected by their services and foreign policy specialists. Further, we will discuss the role of non-governmental experts and other providers of open-source knowledge and investigate how this can inform intelligence and policymaking.
We divide our learning process into several stages. In addition to unpacking how estimative (forward-looking) intelligence is provided, we learn about the complex processes of policymaking in the field of security. We discuss how intelligence producers, and other experts who produce knowledge about threats and risks, inform this, by asking: what is their role and what do they need from policymakers? We look at some of the problems that can occur in the intelligence-policy interface and explore the root causes, such as cognitive biases. We engage with the notion of intelligence success versus failure and look at the value and limitations of post-mortem evaluations after foreign policy crises.
One of the practical elements of this course is that you will learn in-depth how to brief policymakers. Many of you who will pursue a career in either the public or private sector will encounter situations in which you are expected to brief others in your organisation about information you researched or reports you produced. You will thus enter the labour market with an improved understanding of how to produce and communicate expert knowledge effectively.
Central to this course is the research skill of analysing complex phenomena. Students will learn to apply the concepts and theoretical expectations and speak to debates discussed in class in order to systematically assess, interpret and explain contemporary challenges, failures and successes in the intelligence-policy interface. They will learn about the way the relationship between analysts and policymakers has played a role in the lead-up to strategic surprises in international security. Students will think in depth about a research plan to deconstruct and analyse such complex phenomena. Further information on how the development of this research skill relates to the portfolio assignment and how students can prepare for the portfolio and defence will be provided in class.
Course objectives
Academic skills
Upon completing this course, students are expected to have:
advanced knowledge and understanding of how to analyse complex phenomena in international security;
advanced knowledge and understanding of the core concepts and debates on the relationship between intelligence producers and policymakers;
advanced knowledge and understanding of how this relationship may result in intelligence failure;
awareness of the challenges in the relationship between intelligence producers and policymakers;
the ability to define and analyse those challenges from the perspectives of both intelligence producers and consumers.
Professional skills
Upon completing this course, students are expected to be able to:
transfer these academic insights to a professional context through the use of real-world case studies;
understand the key tenets of how to produce and communicate intelligence and other forms of knowledge to decision-makers;
collaborate in a team on a joint project;
present research results in written and oral form individually and as a group, and self-evaluate and reflect after interactive in-class work and individual assignments.
Timetable
On the right side of programme front page of the E-guide you will find links to the website and timetables, uSis and Brightspace.
Mode of instruction
The course will combine (guest) lectures and work group sessions, with both elements being interactive. In the lectures, students will learn about the key debates, concepts and theoretical expectations related to the intelligence-policy interface and will be introduced to different case studies. The lectures will also pay special attention to intelligence-related news stories and students are encouraged to mention news items that caught their attention. The work group sessions will give students an opportunity to discuss the practical aspects of the course in a more intimate setting. Students will also be participating in a simulation exercise.
Attendance on-site is mandatory. Students are only allowed to miss more than three sessions in total if there are special, demonstrable personal circumstances that are covered by the Board of Examiners' regulations. Students who face such a situation are advised to contact the study advisors to discuss this. They should note that neither the study advisors nor the course convenor have the authority to decide on exceptional exemption of mandatory attendance. At the end of the course, if students have passed all other components of the course, they can submit a request to the Board of Examiners for a waiver of the mandatory attendance requirement.
10 EC = 280 hours
Contact hours = 42 hours
Self-study hours = 238
Assessment method
The calculated grade of the assignments must be at least 5.50 in order to pass the course.
Group assignment
20% of final grade
Resit not possible
Grade can be compensated in case of a fail (< 5.50)
Mid-term exam
30% of final grade
Resit not possible
Grade can be compensated in case of a fail (< 5.50)
Please note that the exam will take place in person (not online) in week 4. Please plan accordingly as you need to be available to take the exam on exam location (in The Hague) during week 4. The date of the exam will be published in your timetable and the syllabus closer to the beginning of the course.
Final paper
50% of final grade
Grade must be 5,5 or higher to pass the course
Resit possible
Resit will take the same form
Students will also be permitted to resit the 50% final paper if they have a calculated overall course grade lower than 5.50 or with permission of the Board of Examiners.
Potential additional, formative (non-graded) assignments are an obligatory part of the course.
Attendance on-site is mandatory. Students are only allowed to miss more than three sessions in total if there are special, demonstrable personal circumstances that are covered by the Board of Examiners' regulations. Students who face such a situation are advised to contact the study advisors to discuss this. They should note that neither the study advisors nor the course convenor have the authority to decide on exceptional exemption of mandatory attendance. At the end of the course, if students have passed all other components of the course, they can submit a request to the Board of Examiners for a waiver of the mandatory attendance requirement.
Transitional arrangement
Please be aware that passed partial grades obtained in the academic year 2024-2025 are no longer valid during the academic year 2025-2026.
Reading list
The required readings for each session as well as additional literature will be announced in the syllabus.
Registration
Register yourself via MyStudymap for each course, workgroup and exam (not all courses have workgroups and/or exams).
Do so on time, before the start of the course; some courses and workgroups have limited spaces. You can view your personal schedule in MyTimetable after logging in.
Registration for this course is possible from Wednesday 10 December 13.00h
Please note: Registration for the resit of an exam (and exam) is mandatory, this has to be done by the student and can be done from Monday 4 May 2026 until 10 days before the exam. Until 5 days before the exam you can email OSC and fill in a form.
Leiden University uses Brightspace as its online learning management system. After enrolment for the course in MyStudymap you will be automatically enrolled in the Brightspace environment of this course.
More information on registration via MyStudymap can be found on this page.
Contact
Dr Eva Michaels e.m.michaels@fgga.leidenuniv.nl
Remarks
The course will be taught and assessed in English. The corresponding Brightspace course will become available one week prior to the first seminar.