More and more opinion polls are conducted all around the world. Particularly during election campaigns, one political poll rapidly follows another. The increase in polls is partly caused by the internet, which has made it possible to collect a lot of information in a cheap and fast way. However, the question is how reliable and valid poll results are.
The purpose of this course is to provide students with a deeper understanding of a range of practical and theoretical aspects of opinion polls. There are good and bad polls. This course describes how to separate the chaff from the wheat. It is also a good guide for conducting your own polls.
Among the methodological aspects discussed in this course are design of a questionnaire, selecting a sample, calculating estimates, the problem of nonresponse, and working with margins of errors.
Objective 1: Students should be able to design and conduct a basic poll, taking into account the methodological requirements.
Objective 2: Students should be able to establish whether polls of other organisations satisfy methodological requirements.
Objective 3: Students should be able to handle basic aspects of a poll, like computing estimates and margins of error. They should also be able to correct poll outcomes for nonresponse.
Timetable courses and exam
Thursday 09:00-11:00, from 6/9/2018 - 16/10/2018
Final exam: Monday 22 October 2018, 09:00-11:00 in the FSW building
Retake final exam: Wednesday 16 January 2019, 09:00-11:00 in the FSW building
Mode of instruction
Lectures, homework exercises
Total course load for the course: 5 EC/140 hours – Hours spent on attending lectures: 14 hours – Time for studying the compulsory literature: 80 hours – Time for completing assignments/ time to write papers (including reading/research): 46 hours
The final assessment will be based on a two hour written closed book examination.
First opportunity for a written exam: 22 October 2018, 09:00-11:00 at the Pieter de la Courtbuilding
Second opportunity for a written exam: 16 January 2019, 09:00-11:00 at the Pieter de la Courtbuilding
Students can find the course syllabus and additional course materials on blackboard. Students are advised to enroll on Blackboard before the start of the course.
• Jelke Bethlehem (2014), Polling Public Opinion. This publication can be downloaded from Blackboard. This free course syllabus is sufficient for the course.
• Jelke Bethlehem (2018), Understanding Public Opinion Polls, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fl. This book is an updated and extended version of Polling Public Opinion.
Basic knowledge of Statistics and Political Science is recommended to take this course. This implies that students have followed at least 10 EC of courses on government and politics.
Students need to register for lectures and work group sessions in uSis. It is not possible to take a course without a valid registration. Please consult the course registration website for information on registration periods and further instructions.
Students are not automatically registered for exams. They can register themselves in uSis until 10 calendar days before the exam date at the latest. Students who are not registered will not be permitted to take the exam. More information can be found on the exam registration website.