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Bayesian Statistics for Astrophysics (BASTA)

Vak
2026-2027

Admission requirements

For the Astronomy Bachelor, a passing grade for the course Statistics and Data Analysis (SDA) is required. For the Physics Bachelor, you are very welcome to join this course, but you will need to read up on the material covered in SDA, in addition, a passing grade for Complex Physics of Cooking and Experimentele Natuurkunde is recommended.

Description

In the era of data science, the responsible and accurate use of statistics is of high importance. In this course we first briefly review the foundations of probability theory and statistics. The main focus is on the application of statistics, in particular parameter inference within the Bayesian framework.
The course covers the following themes:

  • Conditional probability and marginalization

  • Statistical models and distributions

  • Likelihood and its connection to generative models

  • Nested models, hypothesis comparison

  • Bootstrap confidence intervals

  • Bayes' Theorem

  • Bayesian inference, including priors

  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods

  • Frequentist versus Bayesian framework comparison

Course objectives

This course will give an overview of the basic concepts of statistics and probability theory and provide some practical tools for (parameter) inference with typical datasets in physics and astronomy. After this course, you will be able to:

  • Explain the difference between least-squares and Bayesian (MCMC) methods for parameter inference

  • You can implement these two methods and select the best approach for your dataset

  • Examine the outcome of your analysis and critique its assumptions if needed.

Schedule

Schedule

In MyTimetable, you can find all course and programme schedules, allowing you to create your personal timetable. Activities for which you have enrolled via MyStudyMap will automatically appear in your timetable.

Additionally, you can easily link MyTimetable to a calendar app on your phone; and schedule changes will be automatically updated in your calendar. You can also choose to receive email notifications about schedule changes. You can enable notifications in Settings after logging in.

Questions? Watch the video, read the instructions; or contact the ISSC helpdesk.

Note: Joint Degree students from Leiden/Delft need to combine information from both the Leiden and Delft MyTimetables to see a complete schedule. This video explains how to do it.

Teaching method

  • Lectures (interactive)

  • Exercise classes

Assesment method

There will be a short exam and an assignment that involves the application of MCMC. A passing grade for the exam is required to pass the entire course.

  • Take-home assignment; plus short presentation (50%)

  • Written exam (50%)

Resit, review & feedback

The retake exam will be either written or oral, depending on the number of participants. During oral exams students may also be asked to solve problems on paper.

Reading list

  • No book

Registration

As a student, you are responsible for enrolling on time through MyStudyMap.

In this short video, you can see step-by-step how to enrol for courses in MyStudyMap.
Extensive information about the operation of MyStudyMap can be found here.

There are two enrolment periods per year:

  • Enrolment for the fall opens in July

  • Enrolment for the spring opens in December

See this page for more information about deadlines and enrolling for courses and exams.

Note:

  • It is mandatory to enrol for all activities of a course that you are going to follow.

  • Your enrolment is only complete when you submit your course planning in the ‘Ready for enrolment’ tab by clicking ‘Send’.

  • Not being enrolled for an exam/resit means that you are not allowed to participate in the exam/resit.

Contact

Contact details teacher: Dr. S. van Velzen

Remarks

Software
Working Python environment on your laptop is required.